Exploiting Skewed NFL Futures

Though not nearly as popular as pointspread betting and over/under proposition bets, NFL futures certainly get their share of action at online sportsbooks, too. Definitely a tricky market to play, the rewards can be huge when that dark horse comes through. Below runs a bit of advice on how to better play NFL futures.

Tip one: If you’re confident about your overall football knowledge, the best time to bet on conference, division and Super Bowl winners is at the beginning of the season. Rarely is there an odds-on favorite at all and the odds are typically overly skewed toward the previous year’s result, a tendency that conveniently ignores simple facts like only once between 2001 and 2009 has the losing team in the Super Bowl *made the playoffs the following year.*

Tip two: The first step in considering NFL futures is determining how many games you think every team in the league will win. Finding a decent set (or decent sets) of power rankings is usually recommended here and the more specific the proposition bet is, the deeper into the numbers you’ll have to go – and you’ll be studying quite a bit in this area before betting on the popular “over/under on Team X number of wins” props.

Tip three: Injuries will happen, rosters will change, so factor this in. Before putting money on any NFL future at any point in the season, you must consider the worst-case scenario. One to two teams per year become “riddled with injuries” by the halfway point and marquee players consistently fall to injury and leave a noticeable hole on their team’s roster.

Tip four: Always bet the “no” on any “Team X to finish the season undefeated” proposition. It’s just not going to happen again any time soon ... if ever.