Identifying Underpriced Big Favorites

A nice weapon in the war of NFL football betting? Try the yards per play (Y/P) statistic. Though not one of the more common numbers bandied about by play-and-play guys during Sunday games, Y/P is often the single best indicator of offensive effiency – and defensive inefficiency.

These days, wildly imbalanced pointspreads are harder and harder to find. With “parity” a buzzword, fewer and fewer punters are willing to play a double-digit underdog at the online sportsbook. However, a comparison of Y/P can reveal some serious mismatches the bookmakers are hesitant to label with a huge pointspread for reasons of public appeal.

Yards per play numbers can easily be found at any major website with NFL news – start with ESPN.com or NFL.com, for example – although you may have to retrieve the information from two different pages (offensive stats and defensive stats). Simply make a list of each team’s performance in the categories and then calculate the difference by subtracting Y/P allowed from Y/P earned. Entering the info into a spreadsheet program will make it even easier, but this may be the simplest math you ever have to in preparing bets.

Now, the Y/P differential is no be all and end-all, but you will want to seriously consider any game pitting a top-five Y/P team against a bottom-five Y/P. Simply put, a bottom five ranking would indicate a tendency to give up big plays and/or an inability to move the ball.

Toward the top of the table, you’ll want to be careful about overestimating the teams a bit: Keep the previous schedule in mind. If the positive numbers are all coming from easy victories over weak division rivals, discount that team rapidly; like all statistics, Y/P comparisons get more accurate with more games played against a more varied schedule.

One estimate figured that when employing the yards per play comparison, speculators may assign one point scored for every 0.15 Y/P. This puts the statistic into more concrete terms and shows how the deceptively small numbers become huge over the course of an entire game: A team with a 0.9 Y/P rating (typically a top-five team in the category) has a 12- to 13-point advantage against a porous -1.0 Y/P side.

While remembering that this is only one statistic and should not be the only basis for determining winners, punters should use the Y/P as an indicator of potential mismatches. When two teams bringing in extreme Y/P numbers meet, that’s a big red flag for the would-be punter – and a good opportunity to beat an online sports betting site.