Wednesday, 8 February 2012
David Thoreau once wrote that “Luck is the residue of design” while somewhere along the way this became slightly changed by a pro football coach (some say it was Vince Lombardi) to “Luck is the residue of skill.” Neither quote is much consolation to an unlucky punter backing the team on the wrong end of a freak turnover or a bad call from a referee, however, and the bettor has to maintain a calm attitude when hit with such a loss.
Though the trauma may not make it seem so, in sports with longer seasons such as NHL hockey, baseball virtually anywhere in the world, and NBA, NCAA and European basketball, a lucky incident is often just – statistically speaking – the numbers balancing out. If an NBA team is on a 1-9 run, for example, the 11th game could well see the given team set some one-quarter scoring record or a single hot player is constantly fed the ball until he scores 40 points in the second half. Clearly, the team is not a .100-level club (no NBA team has ever gone an entire season winning so few games) and so eventually they are in fact “due for a win.”
In the NFL betting, incidences of luck are much more deadly, as the majority of the 16 regular-season games over 17 weeks can turn any number of teams’ fortunes. However, even in football, the lucky bounces tend to even out to 50/50 over the long-run. (It’s still *luck* after all.) Thus, by tracking certain high-risk plays throughout a season, some insight into who might be seeing some bad “luck” before season’s end becomes clearer.
Most “flukey” play results in NFL come on third-and-long situations and/or in the fourth quarter. What some call “clutch,” some call “luck,” which the properly prepared coaches are most likely to call it “the residue of skill.” Be aware of which teams are winning games based on fourth-quarter performance, but more importantly note any teams which have gotten a disproportionate number of breaks late in the game (two is enough after eight games): These teams may be playing over their heads.
As for third down play, make note of both teams’ conversion rates and the number of times they face third down. A low conversion rate may indicate either overly risky or just plain bad play-calling: Look for these teams to suffer “bad luck” in key gambling situations, i.e. against apparently evenly-matched teams or against division rivals.
Finally, train yourself to respond to luck when live in-game betting. If the unlucky play or call isn’t a game-ender, factor the result into some immediate cover bets. It is said that in baseball, a hit batter is worth 0.5 runs per game. If that HBP occurs with runners already on base, the odds of a run scoring have suddenly increased by a factor of nearly three. In football, an unlucky turnover is worth between 3 and 3.5 points per game – plus there’s always that unquantifiable “momentum shift” to take into account.
In the end, though, luck should not become an obsession-breeding factor when betting NFL games or any other sport. The truth is the better team will typically win and luck is reduced to a footnote...it’s just up to you to figure out which team that is.
