Past Results Mean Nothing
One of the most dangerous and expensive practices you might see some sports bettors make is using past results as a predictor for the future. Not only is this far from being an exact science, but it also gives greater significance to the past. At a time when the punter should be focusing on the present. Here are some reasons why using the past is a dangerous practice for handicappers.
The Past Doesn’t Accurately Predict the Future
Whether you’re investing in a business or a sport, you must know that past results and performance is no indicator of future performance. Simply put, you can’t predict the future and the past isn’t going to help you with that either. Of course, sometimes you’ll get a rough idea of what might happen in the near future, but you can never be 100% sure of it. Being a profitable handicapper means being efficient. Though you might take a quick look through past results, your betting expectations should be firmly based elsewhere. But even within this approach, there lies a danger. You might be looking through lots of statistics and numbers for jackpot winning tips and tricks. And you’ll think that they’re all relevant.
But the problem with this is that you’ll start almost subconsciously agreeing with those numbers that appeal to you. This is known as “confirmation bias”. On the whole, it’s easy to find numbers to fit our world view. But as a sports bettor, you need to leave any bias at the door on your way in. It’s so easy to find what we’re focusing on and then miss all the important stuff. That’s because we are either blinkered in our approach or too lazy to look deeper and further.
Past Results Mean Nothing: Issues Of Age
On the whole, as with most sports, youth is a deciding factor. They have more energy and a greater willingness to take risks. But here’s the rub; youth is unpredictable. Young players are ignorant, or to put it more nicely, they lack experience. On the whole, the sweet spot age-wise for most athletes is around the late 20’s. Before this they lack experience and after this, their physical performance rapidly falls off the map. As a sports bettor, whenever you evaluate an upcoming game, you’ll need to take into consideration the ages of the players. You should begin with the ages of the most important players based on their past performance. You should ideally be making handicapping corrections after looking at the player’s ages.
Injuries really matter when it comes to team results. Not only might it make the player unavailable for a certain number of future fixtures, but also even small injuries can affect performance. Many a time, managers let injured players play as the substitute isn’t half as good as the player. And these small injuries are important when it comes to handicapping. You’ll need to somehow find out about these smaller injuries. Blogs, team writers, Instagram posts, you’ll want to be checking all sorts of media and social media for any clues. Yes, we know that this is very time-consuming. But a small hidden injury that the bookmakers are not aware of can make all the difference to the team’s performance and, with some luck, you could hit the football jackpot.
Past Results Mean Nothing: Rest and Fatigue
Past results aren’t going to help you when it comes to the number of players who need a rest or may be suffering from fatigue. When a great player is fresh, then there’s really no stopping him. But after a tough season, his results may vary by quite a margin simply because the player is worn down and tired. But if a punter is trying to ascertain the condition of players before placing a wager, then it’s not easy to see when a player is wearing themselves down. On the whole, all players will experience a lack of performance as they tire. To that end, you’ll need to track the players over the course of the season to gauge just how tired they really are.
Past Results Are Meaningless
As a for-profit bettor, your sole interest is in making your bankroll grow whatever the jackpot games. Nothing else matters. In fact, you should actively ignore all things that might detract from that goal. And that also goes for past performance. That a team did last well season or how many pieces of silverware were placed in the trophy cupboard are irrelevant. Past results are interesting, that much is true. But a handicapper should not be relying on this information as a predictor of the next results. Unfortunately, there’s no magic formula for picking winners.
It’s great to think that in the future, you just input all the relevant data and a machine will spit out the name of the winning team. But there’s so much that’s nuanced about games and game-play, that it’s hard to see that functioning. Whatever data it uses, it will not be using past results as these are of zero use for predicting future ones. Back down to earth, we suggest that you take a good look at everything apart from past results.
Conclusion: Past Results Mean Nothing
We’ll admit that using past results when you’re handicapping can help your betting strategy a tiny bit. But with a built-in confirmation bias, more often than not you’ll look at the wrong thing. Or at the right thing, but in the wrong way. Past results may contain some truths. So, it’s about knowing which are the results to keep and which are the ones to toss out. That should form a large basis of your jackpot winning strategies. We suggest that you ignore all the teams’ past results and only concentrate on individual players. You should consider factors such as age, rest, and any negatives like injuries. Look, no one said that sports betting was easy. To do it well, and make consistent money, then you’ll have to spend time on the project. And then only act as if you were treating it as a business.