So what exactly is proposition betting? As the interest in betting on NFL games continues to increase at online sportsbooks, so too do the variety and number of NFL props. In today’s episode, we look at how to make props.
Proposition Betting: Definition
Proposition betting are those in which there is a wager that does’t depend on the result of a single game. In fact, for decades, the single most popular regularly-offered proposition bet has been the “Who Will Win the Super Bowl?” market available basically from the end of the preceding season at every online sports betting site.
Lots of other Super Bowl proposition bets have become wagering staples throughout the years. These include the inexplicably popular “result of the coin flip” throwaway bet. Also the tantalizing “Will either team score a safety in the game?” prop always on offer by many bookmakers. Today, such lines are on offer on every game every Sunday.
How to make Props
One favorite prop for NFL games is “Which team will score first?” Here, some advice when considering making this bet is to give more weight to the underdogs. Particularly if they’re at home. The thinking goes that the field of punters will be heavily backing the favorite. Thus the odds are on this proposition betting getting out of shape pretty quickly.
Of course, common sense will tell you that a top-flight offense simply scores on any possession more often and thus almost always has the odds in this prop bet in its favor.
Proposition Betting: An Example
You can estimate an average money-line for any game with a bit of mathematics. Look at the point-spread and over/under offerings for the first half at any sportsbook. If the Philadelphia Eagles are a three-point underdog at the New England Patriots with an over/under of 23 points, that makes an expected first-half score of New England, 13-10.
The money-line on offer by the bookmaker should be about equal to:
(expected score of favorite / expected score of underdog) x 100
If your numbers (double-check them!) are off by even more than +10 or -10, the “Who will score first?” proposition betting could be a steal in the making for the sharp-eyed punter.
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